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    3 S Beating Commodity Picks

    The evidence is now quite strong that these markets have bottomed, meaning a short-term pullback would be a good chance to jump in on these broad-based sector ETFs and ETNs.

    Commodity markets dropped along with stocks in early August, as concerns over the health of the economy reached a fever pitch after the debt downgrade.

    As stocks have rebounded from the August lows, the major commodity indices, as well as the commodity ETFs and ETNs, have been even stronger. The charts indicate that the correction from the May highs has been quite normal, and there is strong evidence now that the lows are in place.

    This suggests that global economies the emerging markets be in better shape than most think. The broad-based commodity ETFs and ETNs are now testing strong resistance, so a near-term setback looks likely, but this should be a good buying opportunity.

    Click to Enlarge

    Chart Analysis: The daily chart of the Reuters CRB Index shows that the flag formation, lines a and b, has been completed. This correction looks similar to free music downloads what occurred in 2010 (green circle), as the CRB then had a six-month correction that ended in July 2010.

    The decline from the April highs at 691 was quite shallow, as it only lost 11% through its early August low of 615.50The index is now close to stronger resistance near 660, with more important levels in the 675 to 680 areaThe minimum upside target from the triangle formation is in the 700 to 720 areaThe relative performance or RS analysis broke out of its trading range (lines c and d) in early August. This signaled that is was starting to outperform the S 500. This trend is likely to continueThere is initial support now at 635 to 645The Elements Rogers Total Return ETN (RJI) was designed to track the global consumption of a basket of 36 commodities. It holds 35% in agricultural commodities, 21% in both precious and base metals, and the remaining 44% in energy.

    RJI peaked at $10.51 in April and violated the 50% Fibonacci support level in early August, as the low was $8.54. The more important 61.8% support is at $8.15Wednesday close was above the downtrend, line free music videos e, suggesting that the corrective pattern has been completedThere is a band of daily chart resistance in the $9.70 to $9.90 area, which should limit the upside over the near termThe daily on-balance volume (OBV) has broken its downtrend, line g, but so far the volume has lagged that of the early August decline. The weekly OBV (not shown) did confirm the April highs but is currently below its WMAThere is initial support now around $9.10 to $8.90

    Click to Enlarge

    PowerShares DB Commodity Index ETF (DBC) is more narrowly focused than RJI, as it includes commodities like sweet crude oil (West Texas Intermediate, or WTI), heating oil, RBOB* gasoline, natural gas, Brent crude, gold, silver, aluminum, zinc, grade-A copper, corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar.

    DBC shows a broad trading range (lines a and Cool since the April highs of $31.99There is key resistance in the $30.70 to $30.92 area, and a close above $31 would complete the corrective pattern and give upside targets in the $33 to $34 areaThe RS line has already broken out to the upside, as resistance (line c) has been overcome. This indicates that DBC should continue to outperform the S 500The daily OBV has also moved through resistance, line d, which is a bullish sign. The weekly OBV (not shown) is very close to moving back lebron james above its WMAThere is short-term support now at $29.45, and the rising 20-day EMA provides stronger support at $28.50 to $28.80The 38.2% retracement support at $27.75 was briefly broken in August. The 61.8% support level is just above $26.50The Elements Rogers International Agricultural Total Return ETN (RJA) is a fairly pure free music videos agricultural play. 6.6%).

    As recommended in July, buyers of the PowerShares DB Commodity Index ETF (DBC) went 50% long at $30.06 and 50% long at $29.77, and both stopped out at $28.66. Would go 50% long DBC at $29.54 and 50% at $28.96, with a stop at $27.24 (risk of approx. 6.9%).
     
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